CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2017-05-13T22:00:00-CME-001)

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2017 May 15 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained very low. There were no spot groups present on
the visible disk. An eruptive filament located near S60E10 was observed
in H-alpha imagery starting to lift off at approximately 13/1300 UTC. An
associated CME was observed in LASCO coronagraph imagery beginning at
13/1712 UTC. The majority of the ejecta appeared to be on a southern
trajectory, however, further analysis indicated that an Earth-directed
component exists. WSA-Enlil model output suggests an arrival at Earth
late on 16 May.

A second filament eruption was observed in GONG and SDO/AIA 193 and 304
imagery beginning at about 14/2230 UTC. The 12 degree long filament
erupted along a channel centered near N17W30. LASCO C2 imagery observed
a CME off the WSW limb, first visible at 15/0124 UTC. Forecasters await
further imagery for any Earth-directed component.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the forecast period
(15-17 May).

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
with a peak flux of 428 pfu observed at 14/1330 UTC. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux remained at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels on day one (15 May). On day two (16 May), flux is
likely to decrease to normal levels due to the anticipated arrival of a
recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS and combined impact of the 13 May
CME mentioned above. Normal to moderate levels are anticipated by day
three (17 May). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of nominal conditions to start the
period. Solar wind speed began the period near 315 km/s and steadily
increased steadily to about 350 km/s by about 15/0900 UTC. Speeds
increased to 400 km/s by period's end. Total field (Bt) ranged between 1
to 10 nT until approximately 15/1000 UTC when it increased to about 14
nT. The Bz component varied between +7 nT to -4 nT for a majority of the
period. After 15/0800 UTC, Bz rotated between +/- 9 nT. Phi angle began
the period oriented in a mostly negative sector preceding a SSBC to a
positive sector observed after 15/0600 UTC.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to be enhanced for the remainder of
day one (15 May) due to the anticipated arrival of a CIR in advance of a
recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. On day two (16 May), this
enhancement in solar wind parameters is expected to persist until an
additional enhancement impacts Earth late in the day from the expected
arrival of the 13 May CME. Day three (17 May) should see persistent
influence from the combined CH HSS and CME effects.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for
the majority of day one (15 May) as nominal solar wind conditions
persist. Late on day one (15 May), field conditions are likely to reach
active levels due to the influence of an arriving CIR in advance of a
positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet to active conditions are expected on day
two (16 May), with isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions
likely due to the arrival of the aforementioned CH HSS coupled with the
13 May CME. Unsettled to G1 storm conditions are expected on day three
(17 May) with isolated G2 (Moderate) levels likely due to persistent 
HSS/CME influence.

Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2017 May 15 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 15-May 17 2017 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 15-May 17 2017

            May 15     May 16     May 17
00-03UT        1          4          5 (G1)
03-06UT        2          5 (G1)     6 (G2)
06-09UT        2          3          5 (G1)
09-12UT        4          2          4     
12-15UT        3          2          4     
15-18UT        3          3          3     
18-21UT        4          4          3     
21-00UT        4          5 (G1)     4     

Rationale: Isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely
on day two (16 May) due to the arrival of the a positive polarity CH HSS
and the 13 May CME. G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm conditions are likely
on day three (17 May) due to persistent HSS/CME influence.

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